Ukraine is one of the world’s most agriculturally important countries. With some of the richest farmland on earth — the famous chernozem black soil that stretches across the Ukrainian steppe — Ukraine has been a major global supplier of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, barley and other agricultural commodities for decades. Together with Russia, Ukraine supplies approximately 25-30% of the world’s wheat exports. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and subsequently blocked Ukrainian Black Sea ports, the consequences for global food prices and food security were immediate, severe and felt most acutely by the world’s most vulnerable populations.
The Immediate Food Price Shock
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Food Price Index — the most widely watched measure of global food price movements — surged to its highest level ever recorded in March 2022, just weeks after Russia’s invasion. Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped over 50% in the two weeks following the invasion as traders priced in the disruption to Ukrainian exports, which account for approximately 10% of global wheat trade. Sunflower oil, of which Ukraine supplies approximately 50% of global exports, saw even more dramatic price spikes, disappearing from supermarket shelves in several European countries for weeks.
The countries hit hardest were not wealthy Western nations, where food represents a small fraction of household income and where domestic agricultural production provides a buffer against import price increases. The worst impacts were felt in the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa — regions heavily dependent on Ukrainian and Russian grain imports, where food typically represents 40-60% of household spending. Egypt, which imports more wheat than any other country in the world and where bread subsidies are a critical element of social stability, faced immediate and severe challenges. Lebanon, already in economic crisis, experienced food price increases that exacerbated an already catastrophic situation.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative
In July 2022, after months of negotiations mediated by Turkey and the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which created a humanitarian corridor allowing Ukrainian grain exports to resume from three Black Sea ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhne. The deal was imperfect — Russia restricted the types of vessels and volumes, and inspection processes were slow — but it succeeded in allowing significant quantities of Ukrainian grain to reach global markets, contributing to a partial reduction in food prices from their March 2022 peaks.
Russia suspended the deal in October 2022, then rejoined it in November, before finally withdrawing permanently in July 2023, citing Western failure to fulfil commitments on facilitating Russian food and fertiliser exports. The end of the grain deal created renewed uncertainty about Ukrainian export volumes, though Ukraine subsequently developed alternative export routes through European overland corridors and Danube river ports that partially compensated for the loss of Black Sea access.
Russia’s Fertiliser Weapon
Russia and Belarus are major global producers of fertilisers — particularly potash, urea and ammonia — that are essential inputs for agricultural production worldwide. Western sanctions on Belarus’s potash exports, combined with disruptions to Russian fertiliser exports, contributed to global fertiliser price increases of over 100% at peak. Higher fertiliser costs reduced farming profitability and in some lower-income countries led farmers to reduce fertiliser application, cutting crop yields. The longer-term consequence — reduced agricultural output in the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons — extended the food price crisis well beyond its initial energy-shock origins.
Impact on India’s Agriculture
India had a mixed experience with the Ukraine war’s agricultural consequences. As a major wheat producer and exporter in normal times, India initially benefited from the high wheat prices that followed Russia’s invasion. Indian wheat exports surged to record levels in the weeks following the invasion as global buyers scrambled for alternatives to disrupted Ukrainian supplies. However, an unusual heat wave in March-April 2022 damaged India’s wheat crop significantly, forcing the government to impose export restrictions to protect domestic food security and control domestic bread and flour prices.
India’s edible oil market was significantly affected by the sunflower oil shortage, as India imports substantial quantities of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia and sunflower oil from Ukraine. The substitution of palm oil for the reduced sunflower oil supply drove palm oil prices to record highs and increased India’s import costs for a critical food commodity. Indian consumers experienced significant cooking oil price increases through 2022 and into 2023.
Long-Term Food Security Implications
The Ukraine war’s food crisis has exposed the vulnerability of a global food system that had evolved toward efficiency and specialisation at the expense of resilience. The concentration of global grain exports in a small number of geographically proximate countries, the dependence on single shipping corridors for critical food flows and the lack of strategic food reserves in many vulnerable countries have all been identified as systemic weaknesses requiring policy attention. The United Nations and World Food Programme have called for increased investment in agricultural production in food-insecure regions, greater strategic grain reserve holdings and the development of alternative supply routes that reduce dependence on any single geographic corridor.